Professor Flay studied Mechanical Engineering at the University of Canterbury, graduating BE (Mech) with 1st Class Honours in 1975. He then registered for his PhD at the same university and graduated in 1979 with a PhD in Wind Engineering. This was followed by a period of two years as a National Research Council Visiting Fellow at the Atmospheric Environment Service, Environment Canada, Toronto, where he worked with Dr Hans Teunissen, carrying out research in wind engineering using a Boundary La

Abstract:Wind is a poor relation when it comes to receiving research funding compared with its bigger cousins, especially Earthquake research. This is due to the relatively low cost of each of many wind-induced failures, which doesn’t make for big headlines in the media. Nonetheless, the ubiquitous nature of wind failures does lead to large costs… Australia got a big boost in wind research funding after Cyclone Tracy wiped out Darwin on Christmas Day 1974.

In the 18+ years since 2000 insurance companies have paid out well over $1 Billion in storm-related losses compared to just $1.1B in the 32 years prior. The true cost to the economy is estimated to have been at least four times higher and these amounts do not count the losses from the early 2018 impacts of ex-Tropical Cyclones Fehi, Gita, and Hola, nor do they count the costs of wildfire and drought! Assuming no increased exposure of risk as a result of climate change and excluding the most extreme events weather-related hazards are likely to have an economic cost of not less than $18B (2008NZD) over the next 50 years with the real direct and indirect costs having the potential to be much higher. Exposure is increasing, extreme events will occur, and climate change is expected to increase the severity and frequency of storm events and consequent damage. Accordingly, it is becoming increasingly important to gain a much better understanding of how “weather” extremes will impact New Zealand. Not to alarm you, but when an ex-tropical cyclone makes a direct hit on Auckland we will have glass in the streets, a transport system that is deadlocked with a Harbour Bridge that is out of action, and basically absolute chaos.

This seminar will cover some of the research that has been carried out by the Wind Engineering Research Consortium consisting of the University of Auckland, GNS Science, WSP-Opus and NIWA. The work has been funded by the Natural Hazards Research Platform from grants funding work in the periods 2010-11, 2012-2013, 2015-2019. We are currently well down the track writing a grant application for Resilience to Nature’s Challenge 2 (RNC2: 2019-2024) focused on High Impact Weather, and it again will be carried out by a consortium of researchers from UOA, GNS-Science, WSP-Opus and NIWA, and should fund 1 or 2 PhD students at The University of Auckland.